Saturday, October 11, 2008

Panic of 2008

I just read an article that described our markets this week, as the financial panic of 2008. People are acting in an irrational way and thus it is a panic. That makes sense.

They further described investors as having the herd mentality. As in a herd of water buffalo fleeing a predator. One starts to run, so then a second runs, even though he didn't see the predator himself. If your selling, surely I should sell too.

Also they said that hedge funds cannot have big losses by their nature, so they must sell to maintain their principal. When the hedge fellows get all cashed out, and the herds quit running, perhaps the stampede for the exits will slow.

Invariably, at some point the vultures will swoop down from on high and clean up the carrion. Returning to a normal market, will take several years. Even the vultures will not become fat in the near term.

Another friend at the ham club meeting tonight, who is a retired stock broker, said that historically bear markets correct 45 %. He calculated that that would take us to 7,500 on the dow. So we still are not to his projected low. He said that he made this opinion last summer. Makes me wonder if he hasn't shorted the index and is making big money off of this problem.

Of course he isn't about to say.

I became overwhelmed by watching the indexes about mid morning and decided to go out and wash three cars. They were all covered with bugs and needed to be scrubbed with bug sponges. That is really slow going, and it was a sunny no cloud in sight kind of day.

It got quite warm here in the afternoon, and the perspiration rolled off me before I was done. Eventually I gave up. Stuff needs more windexing and vacuumming, but that's the beauty of retirement, there is always tomorrow.

Our kids families have gone on their declared last campout of the season. Returning to Melvern Lake South of Ottawa, Ks. Loyce still has the nasty cold and cough that has settled into her lungs. We declared that we would stay at home for the duration. She needs the chance to get better.

It is getting quite chilly at night here so you know she wouldn't go to bed when all the others were sitting next to the fire. She can become a night owl when a campfire is involved.

Tonight at the pizza joint after the ham club meeting, I decided to refrain from drinking all that diet pepsi that I normally consume. Seems that I get home buzzed with caffeine and then sit up all night, thinking now why did I do that?

A wild week, lets hope this is the last of it. Retired Rod

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